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Italian Power Market Outlook Jul 2021

Published on: 07-26-2021
Italian Power Market Outlook

LNG and Natural Gas Market Outlook Jun 2021

Published on: 06-25-2021
Monitoring and forecasting of market trends

ETS CO2 Outlook Jun 2021

Published on: 06-18-2021
Monitoring and forecasting of market trends

Macroeconomic and Commodities Outlook May 2021

Published on: 05-27-2021
Monitoring and forecasting of market trends

Energy Outlook Apr 2021

Published on: 04-13-2021

in this issue: The Italian GDP recovery is on track and the electricity demand almost back to pre-crisis levels gives ground for hope in the real economy resilience. Of the roughly 15 TWh demand recovery in 2021 more than 5 TWh will translate into contestable demand for gas-fired combined cycles, with import not expected to regain pre crisis average levels.
Three Short-term Key Factors to Watch:

  • Coal Switch Price: year 2020 average CSP was over 10% above the gas-fired production costs for the most efficient coal fired plants and 35% for the average efficiency ones. Year 2021 and 2022 price dynamics make the most efficient coal-fired plants competitive again, but not the average ones, with the CSP remaining around 20% above the gas-fired production costs. This assumes Coal and the CO2 upward trend continuing and remaining relatively stronger than gas. However, almost 10 €/ton of the recent CO2 up move were fueled by financial operators net long positioning, which, as any financial position, is subject to be unbuilt. This puts a short-term downward reversal at risk.
  • High hydro contribution to the Italian mix in year 2021: snowpack is higher than average, but in the event of a dry spring or autumn the renewables weight may decrease, risking the pun to average up to 3 €/MWh higher than expected.
  • Gas-fired production higher competitiveness than coal-fired stabilizes the level of net import despite demand recovering and the increase in NTC. Lower-than-expected import flows from the northern frontiers would benefit the thermoelectric Italian fleet though, potentially leading to higher baseload CSS (+10%) and PUN (+1%) both in 2021 and 2022.

Italian Power Market Outlook Mar 2021

Published on: 03-24-2021
Italian Power Market Outlook

Brent Coal & CO2 Outlook Mar 2021

Published on: 03-09-2021
Brent Coal & CO2 Outlook

Natural Gas Market Outlook Mar 2021

Published on: 03-02-2021
Natural Gas Market Outlook

Macroeconomic and Energy Demand Outlook Feb 2021

Published on: 02-23-2021
Macroeconomic and Energy Demand Outlook

Global LNG Outlook Feb 2021

Published on: 02-16-2021
Energy Markets Outlook