Natural Gas Outlook - Year III - Issue 3 – June 2011

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Natural Gas Outlook - Year III - Issue 3 – June 2011

published on 06-09-2011

In this issue:
ref forecasts

  • Demand
    The natural gas demand should reach 84 Bcm in GY10, 2% higher than in GY09, pushed mainly by the thermoelectric sector. According to forecasts in the GY11 consumptions are expected to be stable: while the power generation demand is expected to grow steadily, the residential, commercial and industrial demand is expected to lose more than 2.5%. The scenario is nonetheless very sensible to the main variables (temperature, development of the thermoelectric sector, industrial production).

  • Supply
    Two elements are relevant in the supply scenario for the next future: the interruption of the Greenstream pipeline, that is not able to reduce significantly the reserve margin, and the firsts results of the “storage decree” that will add 4 Bcm to the available storage capacity. Still few news for the new projected infrastructures.

  • Wholesale prices
    High oil prices, long lasting excess of supply, news in the market design: these elements could impact the Italian natural gas wholesale prices in the next GY. PSV prices will follow the increasing path designed by indexed formulas, with a Gas Release 2007 that climb to 38 €c/cm for the GY11, while no impact is forecasted on prices by the closure for the Greenstream pipeline. Some doubt is around the QE level: the restore of the old formula would imply a growth of 16% for the next Autumn.

Key issues

    1. Gas exporting countries: Libya’s role in Italy’s energy sector
    2. The global market: some considerations
    3. New infrastructures

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