Natural Gas Outlook - Year IV - Issue 5 - June 2012

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Natural Gas Outlook - Year IV - Issue 5 - June 2012

published on 06-13-2012

In this issue:
ref forecasts

  • Demand
    The thermal power sector was most to blame for the recession in demand in GY11. The outlook in the reference scenario is one of a slight contraction, with little room for growth for industrial use and gas as a fuel which is still not very competitive.

  • Supply
    Ownership changes in the transport sector: the GIP buys shares in Transitgas; the CDP replaces ENI as Snam shareholder. Progress with project selection: Azerbaijan supply to TAP and not to ITGI via the Southern Gas Corridor; a final decision on Galsi by 2012; Falconara and Gioia Tauro terminals authorised; progress on Brindisi and Zaule halted. Strategic storage reduced for the first time, but new volumes only for the “storage decree” in GY12.

  • Prices
    PSV prices peak next winter and then fall sharply. Price differences on European markets below the average in recent years as a result of less control by ENI and better allocation of pipeline capacity. The moderate growth in the Gas Release price only continues after 2013 in the high scenario, while indexation formulas fall in GY12 in the reference and low scenarios.

Key issues

    1. The LNG market
    2. Producer countries: Norway
    3. New infrastructures

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