L’Italia è il primo paese al mondo ad avere avviato un programma esteso di installazione di smart meter anche per il settore domestico. A 15 anni dall’avvio del processo di sostituzione dei contatori meccanici, la prima generazione di misuratori appare oggi parzialmente obsoleta e non più all’altezza delle nuove esigenze del mercato. Il presente working paper nasce con l’idea di ricostruire gli aspetti tecnologici economici e regolatori che influenzano la decisione di procedere alla sostituzione, con uno sguardo anche alle esperienze di altri paesi europei.

Dopo i recenti interventi del legislatore e del regolatore, la disciplina nazionale relativa ai sistemi elettrici di generazione distribuita (sistemi di distribuzione chiusi e sistemi semplici di generazione e consumo) ha raggiunto uno stadio avanzato di organicità e completezza.

Un inquadramento unitario della materia rende possibile evidenziare le opportunità, i rischi e le lacune residue con cui gli operatori si trovano ad avere a che fare.

Scarica il Working paper n. 14/2016

Natural gas is by far the main energy source for heating Italian homes. A key question to be addressed by market players in the natural gas industry is to what extent natural gas consumption will be affected by decarbonisation policies, in particular those for the promotion of energy efficiency and the use of energy from renewable energy sources, both in the short-to-medium term and in the longer term. A set of tools is used in this paper to answer such question, consisting in both top-down and bottom-up approaches.

Reforms passed in 2013-2014 concerning cost of energy for Italian industry were pursuing partially opposite aims. In the electricity sector, incentives on general system tariff burdens in favor of large-consumption enterprises were allocated on the base of more selective criteria, in order to grant a stronger support to beneficiaries, while in the gas sector reforms were not so effective. Meanwhile, another set of interventions in the electricity sector brought to a resource redistribution from renewable energy sources producers (through the cut of incentives) and specific consumer categories, as RIUs, SEUs and interruptible customers (through the reform of incentives and exemptions granted on tariffs) in favor of SME. REF-E’s estimates for 2015 show that net effect of all reforms should consist in a saving, in respect of the case of no reforms, of around 10-15% for a large consumer and lower than 3% for a SME connected in MV. In case of large consumers included in a RIU or supplying the interruptibility service, changes in rules referring to these 2 instruments should entail a limited cost increase, given that support on general system tariff burdens covers almost half of the value of whole support granted to large consumers in the Italian electricity sector. Note that results for 2015 are conditioned by the reform of the procedure of incentives supply to solar generation that has una tantum impact (around 0.25 €cent/kWh) on bills of all categories of customers. New risks and opportunities deriving from development of SEU’s regulation and energy tax reform could affect Italian enterprises during next years.

The ongoing electricity market integration process and the upcoming implementation of the Electricity Target Model suggest a European approach to modeling electricity prices. Therefore, this paper proposes a multiple time series methodology for joint forecasting of day ahead electricity prices in eight European countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Slovenia and Switzerland), aimed at capturing the interdependencies existing among their electricity markets. Moreover, this paper provides scenario-based conditional forecasts of day ahead electricity prices from July 1st, 2013 to December 31, 2014, according to the future path of the electricity load developed by REF-E in the Italian case and by governments, regulatory authorities and transmission system operators for the remaining seven countries. Finally, this paper analyzes the sensitivity of day ahead electricity prices forecast to changes in the electricity load scenario.

Two scenarios are drawn which show how the waste management mix may evolve in the mid term (2020) according to specific assumptions made for both municipal solid waste and non?hazardous “special” (i.e. non?municipal) waste, reflecting a good performance case and a bad performance case, respectively. Results of the scenario analysis suggest that the largest share of potential for WTE, and more specifically for thermal treatment, might come from diverting special waste from landfills, while little potential is likely to be available from municipal waste. However, further analysis is needed both to assess the feasibility to incinerate waste that is currently disposed of in landfills, and to assess if such waste could be treated for material recovery instead of energy recovery, the former being preferred to the latter according to EU waste hierarchy. Comparison between potentially available municipal waste flows and estimated incineration capacity results in a geographical mismatch. This perspective ? together with current underutilization of capacity in the North and lack in the South ? raises the fundamental question of whether a decentralized waste management model for Italy is preferable to a centralized one, the latter facing a strict shipment ban established by national legislation that is currently in force.

The new edition of the survey, where the evolution of gas-to-gas competition is analysed by computing the expected average price for a set of contracts at the moment of their signature and comparing it with the expected value of a reference price, covered a period characterized by radical changes. Results confirmed that such changes, that contributed to the increase of liquidity of the wholesale spot market, stressing the “traditional” market paradigms based on oil-linked long term contracts, have been promptly reflected in industrial end user deals which have rapidly moved from oil linked price contracts to either fixed price or hub indexed contracts. Expected margins over the reference price have fallen substantially and rapidly, confirming that the end user market has reached a good level of competitiveness.

The heat pump (HP) technology represents one of those technologies that will play a key role for the achievement of decarbonisation targets in the energy sector. However, recent statistics on Italy's progress towards 2020 objectives, as well as data on sales of HP, show a trend which is not in line with the trajectory drawn by the national plan for renewable energy. Ministerial Decree 28/12/2012 mandates the Energy Authority to set dedicated electricity tariffs for the use of HP, which shall be aimed to promote national energy policy, environmental policy and climate policy targets. Current tariff regimes applicable to HP do not contribute to lower variable costs of heating through HP, as opposed to those of the main alternative, i.e. "natural gas". Those regimes are based on progressive rates, aimed at discouraging high final consumption: however such tariffs do not reflect either primary energy savings or the consumption of renewable energy which the HP technology brings about. In the case of HP, as well as in the case of other technologies that use electricity and which may bring about primary energy savings, current tariff regulation is contradictory with environmental and energy targets. Any analysis of the options for defining dedicated electricity tariffs for HP, building on climate/environmental benefits of the technology, must consider broader reforms in place for electricity tariff regulation, aimed at improving the cost reflectiveness of tariffs as well as at controlling costs for final consumers, with particular attention on weakest categories or categories of consumers facing competition internationally. With the objective of identifying a solution consistent with the above mentioned targets, the case of a subsidy-free tariff was considered, both with reference to network costs (the so-called "D1" or "reference" tariff, which is currently not applied to any consumer), and with reference to general system costs.

Transport sector absorbs over 30% of final energy demand in Italy. Oil products represent 93% of sectoral consumption and transports cover 65% of national oil demand. In terms of CO2 emission transport shows the most critical performances compared to industrial and domestic emissions. REF-E report focuses its analysis on energy and related CO2 emission with reference to energy policy implication. Final energy consumption originates from four different functional levels: production of energy sources (well to tank); transforming energy into transport service (tank to wheel); the conditions of and the ways how the transport service is accessed. Transport policy needs to take into consideration all four levels. Subsidiarity is another important element of transport policy from the European level to the local regulation of the service. In recent years a few policies and instruments to improve energy efficiency in the sector and to reduce CO2 emission have been implemented. Mechanisms that are being introduced from an energy policy point of view are not always coordinated with transport policy, and vice-versa. There are now in Italy a number of advanced pieces of legislation to promote energy efficiency and CO2 reduction target in the transport sector. The legislation though is not coordinated on the different four functional levels. Mechanisms are intervening on singles segments of the transport sector and overall they fail to express an effective and efficient national policy. The necessary reform of energy use in transport is near to come. This will imply a reconfiguration of all energy system with particular reference to the electricity sector. The report starts from the basic energy and emission data of transport in Italy, explores the four functional levels and the relative implication on energy efficiency, collects EU and national policies with reference to energy efficiency and CO2 abatement and describes the national governance. The report ends up with five case studies of different policies tested by a traffic simulation model to assess their overall effectiveness. The case studies focus on electric cars, railways electricity consumption, car insurances options, speed management and mobility credits.

In a fast-changing environment, regulators try to keep the pace of change and adapt their provisions to provide the best market signals. This can lead to a proliferation of new rules which may make the regulatory framework unclear, especially for new entrants. The paper provides an overview of main regulatory provisions governing Italian energy networks, with particular reference to the way allowed revenues are computed and translated into tariffs and a focus on new investments remuneration.