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REF-E Scenarios Update II2022 July 2022

Energy Market Perspectives Beyond the Geopolitical and Economic Turmoil


REF-E scenarios are elaborated by MBS Consulting experts on the base of proprietary suites and market knowledge. Econometric and structural models, as well as our expert sensitiveness, detailed knowledge of regulation, and accurate monitoring of market outcomes underlie our elaborations.
Gas and electricity forecasts take into account the diverse geopolitical and economic hypothesis deriving from the potential war duration and outcome. The European Union and each single nation reaction to the disruption generated from the deterioration of both diplomatic and commercial relations with Russia are seen as key determinants of the future equilibrium of the energy markets.
The Worst Scenario (High Case) is characterized by permanently high prices amid a long-lasting conflict which would lead to import-export bans and economic retaliation, trade flows interruption, commodities supply sharp reduction, negative or zero economic growth and the energy transition process failure.
In the Reference Scenario (Reference Case), prices will remain high in the short-term amid diplomatic and commercial tensions, while the energy transition process will continue and dependence on Russian commodities will be reduced. Gas and other fossil fuels supplies from alternative routes will increase, initially limiting prices upward potential and successively leading to a normalization path. The economic growth suffers a contraction over the next two years, followed by recovery.
The Best Case (Low Case) would materialize in the event of favorable weather conditions and a fast energy transition, supported by low inflation and a faster economic recovery, reducing demand over the next few years. This would limit prices upside potential and then fuel a downward acceleration.

The Elfo++ scenario is also accessible through the new Web App interface!


The REF-E scenarios are complete market studies, processed every four months, setting out the evolution of the Italian electricity market up to 2040. The accompanying documents put the reader in a position to investigate the methodological assumptions and knowledge of the main results presented.

In particular, the scenarios show:

  • fuel prices
  • electricity demand
  • the development of the transmission grid
  • production capacity from renewable sources
  • thermal generation
  • marketing strategy
  • the safety and effectiveness of the system

The REF-E scenarios arise from in-depth and accurate understanding of the needs of the people who work in the energy markets in terms of strategic vision. These rich, detailed and reliable information products are able to respond fully and efficiently to the needs of their users.

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