I-GaMe / EU-GaMe

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I-GaMe (Italian Gas Market Simulator) I-GaMe (Italian Gas Market Simulator) is the tool specifically designed by REF-E in order to simulate and forecast the italian gas wholesale market, PSV. It is aimed to predict and to define the import / export flows and the PSV price, taking into account constraints and rigidity, both of contractual and infrastructural nature typical of the Italian system, playing with economic and energy variables (exchange rates, GDP, brent, coal, electricity prices , etc.) or/and fundamental hypothesis.

I-GaMe is an unique and peculiar market tool based on:

  • Deterministic and quantitative approach enforced by our market intelligence dataset available through our STREAM data-warehouse
  • Integrated apparatus connecting all of our in-house models (EU-GaMe, Elfo++, Elfo Short Term)
  • Adhering, as much as possible, to the peculiarity of the Italian market by replicating possible bid and/or optimization strategies of the main shippers.

I-GaMe is the fundamental tool by which REF-E provides in-depth gas market outlook on the Italian wholesale market, as well as the key behind strategic evaluations of the main market players and investors.

I-GaMe is ideal for different goals such as:

  • Determining the optimal flows pattern on a daily / monthly / yearly basis of the Italian gas system splitted per entry/exit point or type of import , flexible or not flexible quota
  • Forecasting of the entry/exit flows simulating also the commercial strategies of the major shippers
  • PSV and price spreads (versus TTF, NCG, AVTP) forecasting on a daily or monthly basis
  • Portfolio management & optimization strategy
  • Forecasting of the load factor of existing and/or new infrastructures (regasification terminals, storage facilities, pipelines, etc.)
  • Bilateral re-negotiation of gas contracts
  • Estimatation the impacts of the new infrastructures (pipelines, storage, regasification) and new regulatory and tariff frameworks
  • Defining bidding strategies for storage and regasification auctions.

and it is aimed to support many business areas such as:

  • Trading & Origination
  • Portfolio & Risk Management
  • Sales
  • Market Strategy and Regulatory Analysis
  • Business Development

EU-GaMe (European Gas Market Model), is the REF-E in-house structural model which provides clients with analysis and forecasts of European and regional gas market flows and prices throughout Europe.

It is based on the long REF-E experience gained by modeling both Italian and European Gas and Power systems2, in an integrated approach, interacting with LNG and power (Elfo++, Elfo++ Europe) simulators and STREAM, our market intelligence data-warehouse for Gas, Power and LNG.

EU-GaMe design benefitted from the fruitful interactions with Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) and the DG Energy of the European Commission, undertaken within the context of a DG Energy commissioned project managed by REF-E under the review of the European Regulation for the security of supply in the gas sector, and the expertise of our analysts gained on trading and gas market strategy.

EU-GaMe, as a fundamentals-based model, is designed to cover from short to long term time-horizon, incorporating fundamental economic relationships between natural gas prices, supply, storage, pipeline transport and demand, including portfolio optimization strategies of several players under the existing and future long and medium term contracts.

EU-GaMe is able to simulate 18 market areas within North and South West Europe, and adaptable till 33 market locations, including South East Europe, taking into account technical, contractual and cost constraints.

Weather, alternative fuel prices, pipeline capacity, and economic patterns are just few of the key drivers of the model that can be changed also for sensitivity analysis.

EU-GaMe is ideal for:

  • Hub Prices Forecasting
  • European Flow Patterns forecasting and load factor estimation of the current or new gas infrastructures
  • What-if gas market simulations
  • Evaluating LNG and Gas Pipeline Projects of Energy Community Interest
  • Evaluating the level of the competition between LNG and traditional pipeline import routes
  • Impact assessment of market disruptions (as Ukraine transit cut)
  • Assessing the impact of a regulatory change and market risk (i.e: change of entry-exit tariff, regas costs, etc.) on the European gas market
  • Studying regional developments and gas-dependency, such as in Central-EasternEurope
  • Physical and economical evaluations for contractual re/negotiations.
EU-GaME is the tool designed to support many business areas such as:
  • Trading & Origination
  • Portfolio & Risk Management
  • Market Strategy and Regulatory Analysis
  • Sales
  • Business Development

For any clarification and further details please contact us