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December 2017 REF-E Scenario

The REF-E medium-long term scenarios, updated also in light of the indications of the National Energy Strategy 2017, confirm the decisive function of gas generation both for the adequacy and the safety of the system, while only a strengthening of the price signal of the ETS system can start the gradual decarbonisation of electricity production not driven by incentives. In the final electricity consumption, greater investments in heating and transport technologies seem to be offset by incremental measures of electricity efficiency, with effects on demand. The market parity condition, fully achieved after the progressive reduction of the costs of RES-E technologies, will create additional opportunities for investments in renewable generation and for the flexible services offered by electrical storage.

The Elfo++ scenario is also accessible through the new Web App interface!


The REF-E scenarios are complete market studies, processed every four months, setting out the evolution of the Italian electricity market up to 2040. The accompanying documents put the reader in a position to investigate the methodological assumptions and knowledge of the main results presented.

In particular, the scenarios show:

  • fuel prices
  • electricity demand
  • the development of the transmission grid
  • production capacity from renewable sources
  • thermal generation
  • marketing strategy
  • the safety and effectiveness of the system

The REF-E scenarios arise from in-depth and accurate understanding of the needs of the people who work in the energy markets in terms of strategic vision. These rich, detailed and reliable information products are able to respond fully and efficiently to the needs of their users.

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