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REF-E scenario: July 2018 update

The new forecasts include numerous in-depth analyses of the market factors that will have the greatest impact on the profitability of investments in the renewable energy sector.

The reforms introduced by the latest Directive should be able to allow the achievement of the balance between supply and demand in the ETS market within the next 5 years and the level of coal-to-gas switch in the thermoelectric sector will be the main driver of the price of CO2 at least until 2030.

Despite commodity prices being affected in the short term by mainly bullish risk factors and a return in the short to medium term to the average historical conditions of hydraulicity and net imports from abroad, the combined-cycle production share of the electric power mix can be consolidated.

In the long term, the efficiency of electricity demand can be offset by electrification of final consumption, while the growth of renewables can compensate for the increase in demand and the possible reduction of imports from France after 2030.

The captured prices of renewables will be affected by the evolution of the hourly profile of zonal prices as a result of the penetration of photovoltaic and the increasing use of storage to meet the growing needs for flexibility of the system.

Market parity conditions can be strengthened from 2020 onwards also thanks to the reduction of technological costs, but for the full achievement of the environmental targets currently under discussion at European level, which are more ambitious than those already defined by the SEN, new measures to support investments may be necessary.

The Elfo++ scenario is also accessible through the new Web App interface!


The REF-E scenarios are complete market studies, processed every four months, setting out the evolution of the Italian electricity market up to 2040. The accompanying documents put the reader in a position to investigate the methodological assumptions and knowledge of the main results presented.

In particular, the scenarios show:

  • fuel prices
  • electricity demand
  • the development of the transmission grid
  • production capacity from renewable sources
  • thermal generation
  • marketing strategy
  • the safety and effectiveness of the system

The REF-E scenarios arise from in-depth and accurate understanding of the needs of the people who work in the energy markets in terms of strategic vision. These rich, detailed and reliable information products are able to respond fully and efficiently to the needs of their users.

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