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REF-E scenario: April 2019 update

The medium-long term REF-E scenarios April (update April I2019), compared with the new National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), confirm the decisive role of gas generation both for the adequacy and for the security of the system. The gradual decarbonisation of non-incentivized electricity production will require a greater strengthening of the price signal of the ETS system in order to be started. The development of renewables will be driven mainly by Wind and Photovoltaic, whose rapid growth, the achievement of the market parity condition and the consequent effect of cannibalization on the shape of the price may be an opportunity for storages. Numerous in-depth information on this edition:

  • Decarbonisation is driven mainly by renewables, which see 2030 photovoltaic and wind power production reaching 27% of demand, and gas generation, which implies the stability of CCGTs as marginal technology
  • A conservative approach suggest to not forecast, in the main scenario, the complete closure of coal firms without any details to ensure security and adequacy
  • Space for new technologies, which with the growing need for flexibility due to the entry of non-programmable renewables, is able to play an important role in the scenario
  • For the purposes of adequacy, the import plays an important role, on which REF-E, Italian PNIEC and national plans of the other countries have different visions
  • Gas price is driven by the Russian supply strategies and the competition with the LNG, which restate the connection between the gas and oil price. In the long term, it converges on similar levels to today
  • The Italian electricity price is therefore supported by ETS and CSS; the comparison with other European scenarios sees a difference due to the variability of imports
  • The profitability of investments in new technologies is guaranteed in all scenarios and the captured price highly penalized compared to baseloads in the event of greater penetration of renewables.

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The REF-E scenarios are complete market studies, processed every four months, setting out the evolution of the Italian electricity market up to 2040. The accompanying documents put the reader in a position to investigate the methodological assumptions and knowledge of the main results presented.

In particular, the scenarios show:

  • fuel prices
  • electricity demand
  • the development of the transmission grid
  • production capacity from renewable sources
  • thermal generation
  • marketing strategy
  • the safety and effectiveness of the system

The REF-E scenarios arise from in-depth and accurate understanding of the needs of the people who work in the energy markets in terms of strategic vision. These rich, detailed and reliable information products are able to respond fully and efficiently to the needs of their users.

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