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Energy Outlook Apr 2021

Pubblicato il: 13-04-2021

In questo numero The Italian GDP recovery is on track and the electricity demand almost back to pre-crisis levels gives ground for hope in the real economy resilience. Of the roughly 15 TWh demand recovery in 2021 more than 5 TWh will translate into contestable demand for gas-fired combined cycles, with import not expected to regain pre crisis average levels.
Three Short-term Key Factors to Watch:

  • Coal Switch Price: year 2020 average CSP was over 10% above the gas-fired production costs for the most efficient coal fired plants and 35% for the average efficiency ones. Year 2021 and 2022 price dynamics make the most efficient coal-fired plants competitive again, but not the average ones, with the CSP remaining around 20% above the gas-fired production costs. This assumes Coal and the CO2 upward trend continuing and remaining relatively stronger than gas. However, almost 10 €/ton of the recent CO2 up move were fueled by financial operators net long positioning, which, as any financial position, is subject to be unbuilt. This puts a short-term downward reversal at risk.
  • High hydro contribution to the Italian mix in year 2021: snowpack is higher than average, but in the event of a dry spring or autumn the renewables weight may decrease, risking the pun to average up to 3 €/MWh higher than expected.
  • Gas-fired production higher competitiveness than coal-fired stabilizes the level of net import despite demand recovering and the increase in NTC. Lower-than-expected import flows from the northern frontiers would benefit the thermoelectric Italian fleet though, potentially leading to higher baseload CSS (+10%) and PUN (+1%) both in 2021 and 2022.

Weekly report 15-2021

Pubblicato il: 13-04-2021
Monitoraggio settimanale dell'andamento dei mercati energetici

Weekly report 14-2021

Pubblicato il: 06-04-2021
Monitoraggio settimanale dell'andamento dei mercati energetici

Weekly report 13-2021

Pubblicato il: 30-03-2021
Monitoraggio settimanale dell'andamento dei mercati energetici

Italian Power Market Outlook Mar 2021

Pubblicato il: 24-03-2021
Outlook sul mercato elettrico italiano

Weekly report 12-2021

Pubblicato il: 23-03-2021
Monitoraggio settimanale dell'andamento dei mercati energetici

Weekly report 11-2021

Pubblicato il: 16-03-2021
Monitoraggio settimanale dell'andamento dei mercati energetici

Weekly report 10-2021

Pubblicato il: 09-03-2021
Monitoraggio settimanale dell'andamento dei mercati energetici

Brent Coal & CO2 Outlook Mar 2021

Pubblicato il: 09-03-2021
Outlook sul mercato del Brent, del Carbone e della CO2

Weekly report 09-2021

Pubblicato il: 02-03-2021
Monitoraggio settimanale dell'andamento dei mercati energetici