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Greek Electricity Market Study: scenario 2021-2040

REF-E elaborates the most probable evolution of the Greek market over the horizon 2021-2040, based on currently available information. Simulations of market outcomes are obtained through the use of proprietary models and based on relevant assumptions defined by REF-E team. Electricity projections are based on three different long-term Scenarios that represent three alternative views on market evolution and achievement of long-term climate objectives, based on the information currently available. These are:

  1. The Reference scenario: this is considered as the most probable evolution of the Greek market and it incorporates what we believe to be the most realistic view in terms of policy and regulatory framework, deployment of existing and innovative technologies and competitors’ bidding strategies. Under this scenario, purely market driven evolution of the energy mix leads to the achievement of around 85% of RES 2030 National Energy and Climate Plans (NECP) target (47% of GDC coverage instead of 55%), considering however 56.9 TWh of electricity demand (compared to 61.7 TWh in 2030, as projected in NECP).
  2. The Green Revolution scenario: compared to the Reference scenario, the Green Revolution scenario is characterized by lower commodity prices, a higher CO2 price, and higher renewables growth. In this scenario, 2030’s NECP objectives are fully achieved (56% RES/GDC ratio vs 55% in the NECP.
  3. The Delayed investment (DI) sensitivity (of the Reference scenario): the main assumption behind this sensitivity is that of a significant delay in investments in new gas fired CCGTs over the medium-term and the consequent delay in the complete phase out of lignite capacity to ensure system adequacy.
These three separate cases are defined to estimate the impact of the most significant risk factors on future competitive dynamics: electricity demand patterns, coal-to-gas switching effects, renewables and storage development, thermoelectric fleet evolution, degree of achievement of policy targets. The Scenarios horizon is divided into three periods:
  1. Short-term: 2021-2022
  2. Medium-term: 2023-2030
  3. Long-term: 2031-2040

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